Aesoph Group

By Christopher Aesoph, MA

      We all like to believe we’re impartial, fair, and reasoned in our thinking.  Recent studies from the world of sports suggest otherwise¹. Before we delve into the facts, take a moment to consider this question: how many decisions did you make in the last year that called for significant amounts of judgment? Now, how many of those decisions would you like to redo, or more likely, how many of those decisions have you already adjusted to be more in tune with the reality of circumstances you face? If you can’t think of any adjustments or downright missteps, I submit that: a) you are fooling yourself, or b) your role doesn’t require much in the way of sophisticated judgment calls. There are plenty of roles out there, even for executives, in which most judgments are handled elsewhere.

The sobering truth is, judgment is delicate, easy to take for granted, and like a pair of reading glasses that you disregard throughout the day until the need is crucial, easy to misplace. Studies from the world of professional sports from around the globe reveal the truth: you’re easily swayed.

In a stunning grouping of sports stats, the home field advantage is revealed for what it is: a complete myth. True, home teams win more when they play on their home field. This is true in every sport across the board. But it’s not because the home field is familiar, and not because the crowd fires up the home team, and not because visiting teams have to travel. Instead, home teams win more often because of one main factor: the home referee advantage.

Yes, the referee’s judgment is temporarily swayed by the 2,000 or 60,000 screaming fans—depending upon the size of the stadium—into consistently calling more strikes against the visiting baseball team, and less penalties against the home football team, and into lengthening the game when the home team is lagging in a soccer match², and calling traveling more often against the visiting basketball team.

In psychological terms, the tendency of referees to agree with the screaming crowd is called conformity. To test the validity of this tendency, referees were shown videotapes of a soccer match that focused on tackles³. The first tests were conducted with the crowd noise audible, and the second tests were done with the crowd noise removed. The referees who watched the same tackles with the noise included tended to agree with the crowd. In another test of validity, due to previous events of crowd violence at soccer matches, in 2007 there were no spectators allowed at certain soccer games in Italy. When no crowd was present over 21 matches, the home bias in favorable calls dipped by 23% in fouls, 26% in yellow cards and 70% in red cards.  In addition, instant replay in the NFL has lowered the home team advantage significantly⁴.

The fact is, even though referees are as impartial and fair as any humans can be, they are swayed by circumstances beyond their control. One can imagine a study in which fans at a sporting event are replaced by confederates who cheer only for the visiting team. Undoubtedly, over the course of a season we would see the statistics point to what would then be called a visiting team advantage.

When passions run high, people are swayed by their emotions. Even their perceptions of situations in which they saw exactly what happened can be changed by the emotions, desires, and wishes of the people around them. As humans, we all tend to lean toward a judgment that lessens our anxiety—we lean toward conformity. I’m not going to coddle you and suggest that by levitating you can bring your management team beyond this hard truth. I’ll leave it at this: watch out. No one is immune to being human. Your judgment, and that of those around you, is flawed. Period, end of story. Tempted to give up? Okay, take the day off. But if you decide to remain in the fray—which most of us will whether we want to or not—just remember the words of my father. He used to warn me incessantly about arrogance. Every time I would tell him about a successful outcome in my working life, he would say, “That’s fine. Just watch out you don’t get a big head about it.” His advice rings true when it comes to conformity. Sports referees are dedicated to be impartial, and no matter how great their training or how committed they are to the concept, they simply can’t do it all the time. Guess what? Neither can we.